Venezuela is preparing for the October presidential elections with an increasingly heated debate between incumbent President Hugo Chavez and the opposition whose last chance it is to reemerge.
The current situation
On February 12th the opposition will hold primaries to choose the candidate that will stand against incumbent President Hugo Chavez for the October 7 presidential elections. The favourite in these primaries is Henrique Capriles Radonski, governor of the state of Miranda. President Chavez, still recovering from surgery undergone in Cuba last June 10th, has returned to the national political stage to increase his popularity in the run-up to the elections. He has said he has been cured but many have doubts about this. James Clapper, director of the U.S.’s National Intelligence, said that after undergoing surgery in Cuba to remove a stomach tumour, Chavez also underwent four cycles of chemotherapy. The president said he has been cured but this is not certain. Clapper acknowledged that there is no other politician in Venezuela who has his charisma and therefore there is no one who can replace him in the majority Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) through which Chavez governs the country. The polls indicate that Chavez is in the lead with at least 57% of the votes. Other polls quoted by Chavez place him at 64%. The opposition hopes to overturn these forecasts while Chavez states he is certain he will win and that he wants to govern the country until 2031.
Henrique Capriles Radonski is the candidate with the best chance of winning the opposition primaries
There are six politicians running in the primaries held by the opposition, now united in a coalition called Mesa de la Unidad Democratic (MUD), which on February 12 will choose the candidate who will run against Hugo Chavez on October 7. One important candidate, Leopoldo Lopez, who intended to run in the primaries, withdrew on January 24 throwing his support behind Radonski, 39, governor of the state of Miranda, who is leading in the polls and seems the most likely to win. Radonski, a lawyer, is one of Venezuela’s most active politicians and said that if he is elected he wants to copy Brazil’s modern left-wing model. Rather than attack Chavez for his inconclusive policies, in his election campaign he is attempting to persuade Venezuelans to embark upon change and modernization. Polls for these primaries put the 42-year-old Governor of the State of Zulia, Pablo Perez, in second position. The battle should therefore be restricted to Radonski and Perez, with Radonski the favourite. There are also four other candidates with fewer chances; Manuel Rosales, former mayor of Maracaibo, Antonio Ldezma, former mayor of Caracas, Maria Corina Machado, an independent member of parliament and Diego Arria, former ambassador to the United Nations. 
Venezuela’s oil exports to the USA fall
Exports to the United States of Venezuelan crude oil and oil products have fallen significantly over the past 12 years reaching their lowest point in November with 764,000 barrels a day. When Chavez came to power in 1999, Venezuela’s oi exports to the United States amounted to 1.5 million barrels a day. Venezuela has instead increased exports to China and to other South American and Caribbean countries. Venezuela’s Minister for Oil, Rafael Ramirez, has said that oil exports to the United States will remain at the current levels and not fall further, “because we have long-term contracts we intend to respect. Chavez has said that oil production in Venezuela currently amounts to 3 million barrels a day and that he intends to raise it to 3.5 million barrels a day." Many analysts believe that Venezuela actually produces less than the amount stated by the government, probably 2.4 million barrels a day.
Venezuela’s gold reserves have been repatriated
On January 30th Venezuela completed operations to repatriate the last 14 tons of the about 160 tons of gold worth $9 billion primarily deposited in European and American banks. The Chairman of Venezuela’s Central Bank, Nelson Merentes, who was at the airport to receive the 28 crates of the last lot said, “This is the last stage of a plan implemented due to financial prudence and to reiterate our sovereignty.” In August President Chavez had ordered that all gold reserves, mainly deposited in British and American banks, should be returned to Venezuela in view of global financial uncertainty. Venezuela is the 15th country in the world for gold reserves with over 365 million tons.
Venezuela will not accept arbitration by the World Bank
On January 27th President Chavez said the Venezuelan government will in future ignore decisions made by the World Bank’s arbitration body, announcing the withdrawal from the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), linked to the World Bank. Disagreements with foreign companies will be settled with local authorities and by the Venezuelan judicial system.

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is determined to ensure the May general election is as fair and transparent as possible and therefore Algeria is preparing for this important political appointment in a reasonably calm manner.
The current situation
Unlike neighbouring countries such as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, where uprising have resulted in regime change and except for a few attempts to hold street protests early in 2011, Algeria is moving towards a peaceful and controlled transformation of the country.
This is happening thanks to guidance imposed by the attentive and cautious President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 75, who is implementing a series of reforms complying with requests from public opinion. Parliament has already approved an electoral law, one on political parties, one on associations and also one for communications to name but a few.
The new parliament that will be elected in May will establish the foundations for a future modern state. Presidential elections will be held in 2014 and Bouteflika is not expected to run. This subject is not, however, currently being addressed with the focus exclusively on the general election. Many have asked for a government of technocrats to be appointed to organize the elections.
The political situation is evolving very fast
In the meantime the political panorama is evolving rapidly with the creation of new political parties while most Islamic political movements intend to join forces for these elections.
It is very probable that there will be a rift within the government coalition, which consists of three parties, the Front de Libération Nationale (FLN), the Rassemblement Nationale Democratique (RND) and the Mouvement pour la Société de la Paix (MSP).
Even the majority FLN is torn by internal clashes especially between reformists and conservatives, while the MSP, which represents Islamists in the government coalition, is greatly tempted to form an alliance with other Islamic movements.
The RND led by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia is experiencing serious problems because its leader is said to want to run in the 2014 presidential elections, an ambition opposed by the other parties in the government coalition.
Meanwhile, for the first time in 12 years, the government is about to legalize ten new political parties that have been authorized to hold conferences and are expected to become fully legal within a few weeks.
Algeria’s Islamic movements are seriously addressing a possible united front
For some time now in Algeria the former FIS (Islamic Salvation Front ), banned in 1992, has been trying to fully and legitimately return to be part of the Algerian political scenario. Parliament opposed this and passed a law confirming that its reconstitution will not be permitted.
At this point the larger Algerian Islamic movements have started to create a united front so as to succeed in the elections as took place in Tunisia and Egypt.
There are four Islamic parties:
- The Mouvement pour la Démocratie en Algerie;
- The Mouvement de la Reinassance Islamique (Ennahda);
- The Mouvement du Rénouveau National (El Islah)
- The Front pour la Justice et le Développement (currently being legalized) that will hold its constitutive conference on February 5th.
This new party is expected to attract votes that would have above all gone to the former FIS.
On January 28th the coordinator of this initiative,  Azzedine Jerafa, told the Algerian daily newspaper El Khabar that “the project is making rapid progress with the objective of presenting a united front at the May elections and winning a parliamentary majority.”
The FLN’s Secretary General, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, believes instead that all together the Islamic parties will not receive more than 35% of the votes. He excluded the possibility they would achieve an absolute majority in the new parliament, although they will try and join a future government coalition.
Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia said he did not a fear an Islamic majority because no single party will manage to prevail over the others and in the future there will therefore be a coalition government.
The United States insists on additional reforms in Algeria
At a joint press conference during Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci’s visit to Washington on January 11th, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the United States fully supports current reforms in Algeria and asked that these reforms be as widespread as possible. Clinton added that the United States wants Algeria to have a strong democratic base reflecting the aspirations of the Algerian people and praised the efforts the government is making in this direction .
The International Monetary Fund praises the Algerian economic situation
The International Monetary Fund judged the Algerian economic situation as being in good condition for 2012 in spite of the global crisis with the GDP expected to rise by about 3%.